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The $64,000,000,000 question  

  • EU’s Juncker warns U.K.’s Brexit Bill will be “hefty”
  • It only takes a minute

Juncker Warning

EU’s Juncker warns UK’s Brexit Bill will be “hefty”
The President of the European Commission said Britain would have to respect its commitments to the bloc, currently estimated by some to be EUR 60bio (USD 64bio). Some members of the European Parliament have suggested negotiations should not be allowed to begin without a promise from the UK to “settle up”.

It’s hard to say exactly what the final bill will be as some of it seems to include items that the UK Government refuses to accept, among them there are projects signed late last year and MEP’s pensions. It’s also hard to say how much of this is political posturing and brinkmanship ahead of the start of the negotiations for real. Economic analysts are now anticipating a drawn-out impact on the U.K. economy rather than the steep fallout they initially predicted. 


It only takes a minute. Strong focus this evening on the release of minutes for the Fed meeting last month, with rhetoric from almost all Fed speakers and the testimony from Chair Yellen all suggesting it was feasible rates could go up again in March.

Odds for a March rate hike are now up to almost 40% from only just above 10% two weeks ago. Why? In the interim we have had a consistent message from Fed speakers that all meetings are “live” and that there should be three hikes at least this year, even reaffirmed by the usually dovish Janet Yellen said in her testimony on the economy last week. There will be intense scrutiny on the language in tonight’s release for any indication that rates could be headed higher again soon. Higher rates in the US would almost certainly mean a stronger USD.      

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